Global automobile production forecast

A global automobile production forecast by IHS Automotive predicts an increase of 21 million units by 2021.

The report informs that since 2009, automobile production has increased globally by 25 million, as the industry continues to rebound after the Great Recession.

According to its global automobile production forecast, IHS Automotive says that China will account for a sizable part of the increase. However, there is a significant upside attached to the industry in North America as it attracts investment from overseas, and also in the European industry as domestic demand picks up.

South Korean and Japanese production is expected to decline as local original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) concentrate their efforts abroad.

Demand changes in Europe

Falling automobile demand in Turkey and Russia will hold down European production growth to 1% in 2014, IHS Automotive predicts. However, it expects European output to grow by 4% per year from 2015 to 2017, led by a sustainable growth in exports and the recovery of domestic demand. Europe will see strong export growth to China and the United States.

Currently, European domestic demand consumes 70% of domestic production. This will fall to just 50% of production growth expected by 2021. Of this share, over 50% will come from Italy and Spain as they recover from severe losses experienced during the Great Recession.

Denis Schemoul, manager Europe vehicle production forecasting, IHS Automotive, said:

“European car makers will meet divergent demand environments, depending on which part of Europe they are more exposed to.”

Mark Fulthorpe, director global vehicle production forecasting at IHS Automotive, said:

“Segments are changing globally as the emerging markets tip the balance and mature markets come under pressure to downsize.”

Large care sales increase in Europe

Car sales in Europe increased by 10.6% in March 2014, reaching 1,449,148 vehicles. The United Kingdom registered an 18% increased, its 25th consecutive month of increased car registrations, beating Europe’s largest market, Germany.

European care sales grew for the 7th successive month.

Earlier this week Toyota reported a nearly doubling of profits to ¥1.82 trillion ($17.8 billion) for the year ending in March 2014, versus ¥962 billion in the previous year.

The company said a weaker yen and its successful cost-cutting program helped raise profits.

Mexico is set replace Japan for second place in car exports to the United States, IHS Automotive reported earlier this year. The number 1 spot is currently help by Canada. Mexico is forecast to be number 1 by the end of 2015.

IHS Automotive’s forecast for electric vehicle production predicts an increase of 67% in 2014, compared to just 3.6% for motor vehicle production. A total of 403,000 pure electric models and plug-in hybrid electric cars are expected to be produced this year, compared to 242,000 last year.

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