Oil consumption is forecast to peak in 20 years
Oil consumption is forecast to peak in 20 years, according to BP.
Oil consumption is currently at around 100 million barrels per day. BP expects this to increase by 10% to 110 million barrels a day by 2030 before slipping back to today’s consumption level in 2040.
The oil giant said in its forecast that autonomous electric vehicles are going to spark a revolution in the transportation industry while renewable energy becomes the fastest growing fuel source.
By 2040, the number of electric vehicles on the world’s roads is expected to increase from the 3 million there are today to approximately 300 million.
Of the 2 billion cars on the world’s roads in 2040, BP expects electric vehicles to account for 15 percent of them.
Most of these electric vehicles are projected to be operating as part of a ride-sharing fleet service and account for 30 percent of all passenger car transportation.
“Once you don’t have to pay for a driver, the cost of shared mobility services will fall by 40-50 per cent,” said Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist. “What we expect to see in the 2030s is a huge growth in shared mobility cars.”
However, BP expects the amount of oil used by cars to remain the same as it is now in 2040.
The increased number of electric cars on the world’s roads is projected to be offset by a doubling in overall global demand for car travel, with petrol or diesel vehicles still forecast to account for most journeys in the ground transportation sector.
“The suggestion that rapid growth in electric cars will cause oil demand to collapse just isn’t supported by the basic numbers — even with really rapid growth,” said Mr Dale.
“It’s almost nothing. Oil used in the car market is essentially flat for the next 20 years.”