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18:15 BST, June 26, 2023Portfolio optimization plays a crucial role in modern investment strategies, and one widely recognized approach is the implementation of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). In this article, we will present a Python script that showcases how to optimize a stock portfolio using MPT. By leveraging Yahoo Finance data and the Scipy library, we will determine the optimal asset weights that maximize the Sharpe ratio.

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**Section 1: Define Tickers and Time Range**

To begin, we define a list of tickers representing the assets to include in our portfolio. For this demonstration, we will employ five exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that span various asset classes: SPY, BND, GLD, QQQ, and VTI. Furthermore, we establish the start and end dates for our analysis, utilizing a historical time range of five years.

tickers = [‘SPY’,’BND’,’GLD’,’QQQ’,’VTI’]

end_date = datetime.today()

start_date = end_date – timedelta(days = 5*365)

**Section 2: Download Adjusted Close Prices**

Next, we create an empty DataFrame to store the adjusted close prices for each asset. By leveraging the yfinance library, we can easily download the necessary data from Yahoo Finance.

adj_close_df = pd.DataFrame()

for ticker in tickers:

data = yf.download(ticker, start = start_date,end = end_date)

adj_close_df[ticker] = data[‘Adj Close’]

**Section 3: Calculate Lognormal Returns**

The subsequent step involves computing the lognormal returns for each asset, removing any missing values from the calculations.

console.log( ‘Code is Poetry’ );

**Section 4: Calculate Covariance Matrix**

Using the annualized log returns, we proceed to compute the covariance matrix.

cov_matrix = log_returns.cov() * 252

**Section 5: Define Portfolio Performance Metrics**

To evaluate portfolio performance, we define functions that calculate the portfolio’s standard deviation, expected return, and Sharpe ratio.

def standard_deviation(weights, cov_matrix):

variance = weights.T @ cov_matrix @ weights

return np.sqrt(variance)

def expected_return(weights, log_returns):

return np.sum(log_returns.mean()*weights)*252

def sharpe_ratio(weights, log_returns, cov_matrix, risk_free_rate):

return (expected_return(weights, log_returns) – risk_free_rate) / standard_deviation(weights, cov_matrix)

**Section 6: Portfolio Optimization**

In this section, we set the risk-free rate, establish a function to minimize the negative Sharpe ratio, and define constraints and bounds for the optimization process.

risk_free_rate = .02

def neg_sharpe_ratio(weights, log_returns, cov_matrix, risk_free_rate):

return -sharpe_ratio(weights, log_returns, cov_matrix, risk_free_rate)

constraints = {‘type’: ‘eq’, ‘fun’: lambda weights: np.sum(weights) – 1}

bounds = [(0, 0.4) for _ in range(len(tickers))]

initial_weights = np.array([1/len(tickers)]*len(tickers))

optimized_results = minimize(neg_sharpe_ratio, initial_weights, args=(log_returns, cov_matrix, risk_free_rate), method=’SLSQP’, constraints=constraints, bounds=bounds)

**Section 7: Analyze the Optimal Portfolio**

We extract the optimal weights and calculate the expected annual return, expected volatility, and Sharpe ratio for the optimized portfolio. Finally, we create a bar chart to visualize the asset weights within the portfolio.

optimal_weights = optimized_results.x

print(“Optimal Weights:”)

for ticker, weight in zip(tickers, optimal_weights):

print(f”{ticker}: {weight:.4f}”)

optimal_portfolio_return = expected_return(optimal_weights, log_returns)

optimal_portfolio_volatility = standard_deviation(optimal_weights, cov_matrix)

optimal_sharpe_ratio = sharpe_ratio(optimal_weights, log_returns, cov_matrix, risk_free_rate)

print(f”Expected Annual Return: {optimal_portfolio_return:.4f}”)

print(f”Expected Volatility: {optimal_portfolio_volatility:.4f}”)

print(f”Sharpe Ratio: {optimal_sharpe_ratio:.4f}”)

**Display the Final Portfolio in a Plot**

We create a bar chart to visualize the optimal weights of the assets in the portfolio.

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

plt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))

plt.bar(tickers, optimal_weights)

plt.xlabel(‘Assets’)

plt.ylabel(‘Optimal Weights’)

plt.title(‘Optimal Portfolio Weights’)

plt.show()

**Bottom Line**

This Python script demonstrates the application of Modern Portfolio Theory in optimizing a stock portfolio. By determining the optimal weights for each asset, we aim to maximize the portfolio’s Sharpe ratio, which provides a risk-adjusted measure of return. Employing this approach enables investors to construct well-diversified portfolios and make informed decisions when allocating their investments.

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