Beating the bookies is never going to be easy, but with the right approach, it is possible. One way to do so is through the use of mathematics, which is the way I could beat the bookies. There are no shortcuts to success in winning sports bets. Otherwise, everyone could profit in this way. The bookies would soon be out of business.
But if you play to your strengths, you might soon start beating the bookies. And how I did that was by exploiting one of my key strengths: a lifelong love of mathematics. Mathematics has always been a strong area for me. Throughout my school days, it was the subject I found the easiest. Even if I could not love algebra, the solutions came relatively easy to me.
While a lot of people complain that mathematics has no use in real-life situations, I found this is not true. In my early 20s, I realised mathematics could be used in my growing love for sports betting.
Sports Betting and Maths: A Key Combination
There has always been a close involvement between mathematics and sports betting. Mathematics is what is used to decide odds for every single market offered by the sports bookies. To determine what price a bet should be, they work out the rough chances of it happening. Once they have factored in the ‘house edge’ they retain, that is the price offered to their customers.
All this happens by using an understanding of probability. So it is clear mathematics is critical when it comes to sports betting. Finding value bets is always about judging probability. If you feel the chances of an event happening are higher than their odds, it might be a good value bet. This was the crux of my success when I began using mathematics to beat the bookies. It was a long road, and I had to learn a lot from the start.
While I had placed some bets beforehand, I was still unfamiliar with a lot of the jargon and special terms involved in the sports betting arena. I was soon able to catch up, though, with my use of probability able to help me to beat the bookies. Picking winning wagers became easier as I started to learn a lot more about some markets. The handicap market has always been one of my favourite ways to beat the bookies.
Handicaps are great because they take the house edge out of the hands of the bookies. Even if your bet does not win, you can get your stake returned – reducing the risks involved in your bet. This is fantastic as a lot of the time you will essentially have multiple attempts to win cash off the same starting stake if the handicap results go in your favour.
Value often tends to be the best in the handicap markets as well. So this is where I started to focus a lot of my attention, across various sports but mainly focusing on tennis and football.
Using Mathematics to Develop Your Own Sports Betting Models
Although I had some success by mainly focusing on probability and the handicaps, I soon realised that I needed to step things up. So, I enlisted the help of a friend and started to work on my own sports betting models.
These algorithms helped me to decide what bets to place. Creating your own algorithm for sports betting is easier than you might think. It only took a short amount of time before the wins started rolling in. They came more regularly than ever before.
The great thing about using algorithms and mathematics to beat the bookies in sports betting is making tweaks is simple. Small changes can have a dramatic effect on how many bets you will win. With so many statistics out there in the world of sports now, the amount of information you can use when building your models is larger than ever. Data like expected goals (xG) in football, for example, is an excellent addition for anyone who uses mathematics to beat the bookies.
Aside from all this, beating the bookies involves a few other vital things. For one, make sure you always get the best odds possible whenever you go to place a bet. The difference might be small, but it all adds up in the long run. Do not chase losses. Trust your models, and the wins will come, eventually. But manage your bankroll carefully. Never bet what you cannot afford to lose. Good luck with your efforts!
Interesting related articles: