UKIP support plunging say Comres and Ashcroft polls

With less than three months to go before May’s general election, support for UKIP appears to have taken a nosedive as two polls posted significant declines.

A Comres poll for the Daily Mail put the anti-EU and anti-immigration party at 13%, which was 4 percentage points lower than in January – its lowest showing since April 2014.

The Comres poll appears to show that UKIP supporters have moved back to the Conservatives (34%), who pulled ahead to a 2-point lead over Labour (32%).

Ashcroft Poll

Source: The Ashcroft National Poll. 23 Feb 2015.

According to an Aschroft poll on Monday, support for UKIP fell 5 percentage points to 11%, representing a slump of one third.

The Ashcroft poll, conducted during the weekend, shows Labour extending its lead from one to four points.

 

At 36%, Labour has the highest level of support since July 2014. The Conservatives slipped two points to 32%, while the Lib-Dems fell two points to 7%.

Two events appear to have turned would-be supporters away from UKIP. A Channel 4 docudrama simulated a period of racial unrest and economic turmoil following a UKIP win, while a documentary featured a UKIP councilor using a derogatory term for black people.

Comres Poll

Source: ukpollingreport.co.uk/. Image: Daily Mail.

Regarding UKIP support, Lord Ashcroft wrote:

“Most importantly, undecided voters increasingly (and spontaneously) say they know where UKIP stand on immigration and Europe but at a general election they want to vote for someone with more to offer.”

“Some also wonder whether unpleasant or even sinister elements lurk behind the reasonable and entertaining Mr Farage, a suspicion that may have been reinforced over the last few days. We will see as further polls are published whether this effect persists in the coming days and weeks.”

According to a YouGov poll on behalf of the Sun, over half of respondents said they would like to see a Conservative-Lib-Dem coalition government. A Labour-UKIP pact appears to be unpopular.

Although UKIP only has two MPs (Members of Parliament), it poses a serious threat to Conservatives, because it tends to syphon off Tory votes, thus splitting the right-of-centre total count and allowing Labour to get in. Labour fears the Green Party may into their core support.

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