Possible global shortage of chocolate, say Mars and Barry Callebaut

People are eating more chocolate than ever before and it could be resulting in a global shortage of chocolate.

Mars, Inc. and Switzerland-based Barry Callebaut released data on the matter and it shows that farmers are producing less cocoa than what the world consumes. In 2013 global consumption of cocoa was 70,000 metric tons more than the amount of cocoa produced.

If this trend continues then Mars and Barry Callebaut have warned that by 2020 this discrepancy between cocoa consumption and production could rise to 1 million metric tons, and then double to 2 million metric tons by 2030.

The world’s biggest cocoa supply comes from the Ivory Cost and Ghana, which account for about 70% of supply. However, growing conditions in the region’s cocoa farms have been affected by severe drought and a fungal disease called frosty pod.

The demand for chocolate is not decreasing, particularly in countries like China, where chocolate consumption is increasing every year. The increase in demand for chocolate was nearly seven times greater in Asia compared to that of traditional European markets.

In addition, the demand for dark chocolate, which has a higher cocoa volume, is gaining ground.

Since 2012 the price of cocoa has gone up by 60 percent, forcing chocolate makers to increase the prices of their confectionaries.

However, the International Cocoa Organization told USA Today that this shortage prediction is not accurate.

Spokesperson Michael Segal, who forecasts cocoa supply and production, believes that nothing drastic is going to happen for the next five years.

He said:

“What we’re looking at is a very tight close relationship between production and consumption. There might be a small, fairly insignificant deficit or a small, fairly insignificant surplus.”

Adding that the organization’s “most recent predictions and forecasts are not showing anything of the kind,”