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04:28 BST, September 12, 2024
ECB Cuts Rates to 3.5% Amid Slowing Inflation and Weak Growth
14:19 BST, September 12, 2024
- Inflation slowed to 2.5% in August 2024, the lowest annual rate since February 2021, offering some relief to consumers.
- Energy prices dropped sharply, with gasoline down 10.3% year-over-year, contributing significantly to the lower inflation rate.
- Shelter costs remained a key inflation driver, rising 5.2% annually and accounting for over 70% of the core inflation increase.
- Core inflation (excluding food and energy) increased by 0.3%, largely driven by persistent increases in housing and motor vehicle insurance.
- The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates, with the cooling inflation data providing room for a potential 0.25% rate cut in response to easing inflationary pressures.
Inflation in the United States continued to ease in August 2024, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 2.5% over the previous year, marking the lowest annual inflation rate since February 2021.
This decline from the 2.9% annual rate recorded in July provides a much-needed respite for consumers, though inflation remains a central concern for households grappling with persistent price pressures.
Key Drivers of Inflation
| Category | Monthly Change (August 2024) | Annual Change (August 2024) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Inflation (CPI) | +0.2% | +2.5% | Lowest annual increase since February 2021 |
| Core Inflation (excluding food & energy) | +0.3% | +3.2% | Driven primarily by housing costs |
| Shelter | +0.5% | +5.2% | Accounts for 70% of the core inflation increase; includes rent and homeownership costs |
| Energy | -0.8% | -4.0% | Gasoline prices fell 0.6% monthly and 10.3% annually |
| Food | +0.1% | +2.1% | Food away from home rose 0.3% monthly, +4% annually |
| Motor Vehicle Insurance | +0.6% | +16.5% | Significant driver of rising service costs |
| Education | +0.2% | +2.3% | Moderate annual increase in educational costs |
| Used Cars and Trucks | -1.0% | -10.4% | Continued decline from high levels |
The slowdown in inflation was largely influenced by falling energy costs, with gasoline prices decreasing by 0.6% month-over-month in August and plunging by 10.3% year-over-year.
The energy index as a whole fell 0.8% in August and dropped by 4% over the last 12 months.
Food prices saw modest increases, with the overall food index rising just 0.1% from July, contributing to a 2.1% annual increase. Food away from home, which tracks prices at restaurants and other eateries, continued its upward trend, increasing by 4% year-over-year. However, prices for food at home remained flat for the month, which may provide some relief for grocery shoppers.
Shelter and Core Inflation Remain Elevated
Despite the broad easing of inflation, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% in August, slightly higher than expected. This increase was driven primarily by the shelter index, which surged 0.5% for the month and accounted for over 70% of the total annual increase in core CPI. Shelter costs, including rent and homeownership expenses, have increased by 5.2% over the past year, presenting a significant hurdle in the inflation fight.
Additional pressures were noted in sectors such as motor vehicle insurance, which saw a sharp 16.5% rise over the past year, and education, where costs increased by 2.3%.
Federal Reserve’s Response
The cooling inflation rate bolsters expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates soon. The central bank had previously raised rates aggressively to combat high inflation, pushing them to a 23-year high. Last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that inflation is now on a “sustainable path” toward the Fed’s 2% target, paving the way for a rate cut.
While inflation has been steadily declining, some price pressures, particularly in housing and services, remain stubborn. Economists are watching closely to see whether the Fed’s expected monetary easing will be sufficient to keep inflation in check without sparking a recession.
Consumer Impact and Outlook
Although the inflation rate has decreased significantly from its 2022 peak of 9.1%, Americans are still feeling the cumulative impact of higher prices. The CPI is now 21% higher than it was in February 2020, outpacing wage growth in many areas. However, there is some good news: real wages have started to outpace inflation, with inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings up 1.3% year-over-year.
As inflation continues to moderate, consumers may see more relief in areas like food and fuel, but ongoing housing costs could continue to strain budgets. The coming months will be crucial as the Federal Reserve weighs further rate cuts and the economy navigates through these inflationary pressures.
Overall, the latest CPI data signals that inflation is trending in the right direction, though challenges remain, particularly in housing and other core sectors.
Interesting related article: U.S. household income rose by 4.0% in 2023, reaching $80,610