Worldwide CO2 emissions from fossil fuels rose again this year and reached a record high, the Global Science Project science team reported. The team forecast a rise in CO2 emissions of 37.4 billion tonnes, an increase of 0.8% compared to 2023.
We urgently need to reduce emissions to combat climate change. There is no sign yet that global emissions have reached a peak, the researchers explained.
Projected Emissions and Land-Use Changes in 2024
After taking into account projected emissions from land-use change of 4.2 billion tonnes, total carbon dioxide emissions are forecast to be 41.6 billion tonnes this year, which is an increase from 40.6 billion tonnes in 2023.
Examples of land-use change include deforestation, urbanization, agricultural expansion, mining, wetland drainage, and infrastructure development.
Over the past decade, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels have increased, while land-use change CO2 emissions have declined, on average. This has kept overall emissions roughly level over the ten-year period.
This year, 2024, both land-use change and fossil fuel CO2 emissions are projected to increase, as drought conditions intensify emissions from deforestation and forest degradation fires, fueled by the El Niño climate event of 2023-2024.
We are currently releasing more than 40 billion tonnes each year, which will continue pushing up atmospheric CO2 levels, further accelerating global warming and intensifying the risks of extreme weather events, sea level rise, and ecosystem disruption.
More than 80 institutions contributed to this study, including the University of Exeter and the University of East Anglia (UEA) in the UK, the Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich and Alfred-Wegener-Institut in Germany, and the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway.
Their study and findings have been published by the peer-reviewed scientific journal Earth System Science Data (citation below).
Quotes from Some Researchers
Study leader, Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, said:
“The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked. Time is running out to meet the Paris Agreement goals – and world leaders meeting at COP29 must bring about rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions to give us a chance of staying well below 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels.”
Professor Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences, explained:
“Despite another rise in global emissions this year, the latest data shows evidence of widespread climate action, with the growing penetration of renewables and electric cars displacing fossil fuels, and decreasing deforestation emissions in the past decades confirmed for the first time.”
Dr Glen Peters, who works at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Oslo, said:
“There are many signs of positive progress at the country level, and a feeling that a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions is imminent, but the global peak remains elusive.”
“Climate action is a collective problem, and while gradual emission reductions are occurring in some countries, increases continue in others. Progress in all countries needs to accelerate fast enough to put global emissions on a downward trajectory towards net zero.”
Professor Friedlingstein added:
“Until we reach net zero CO2 emissions globally, world temperatures will continue to rise and cause increasingly severe impacts.”
Other Findings
The 2024 Global Carbon Budget researchers also reported the following key findings:
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Land-Use Changes
Global emissions from land-use changes, such as deforestation, have decreased by 20% over the past decade, but are expected to rise in 2024.
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Aviation and Shipping
Emissions from international aviation and shipping, which account for 3% of global emissions (reported separately from national and regional totals), are forecast to increase by 7.8% in 2024. However, they will remain 3.5% below pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
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Land/Ocean CO2 Sinks
The combined land and ocean CO2 sinks continue to absorb around half of total CO2 emissions, despite being negatively affected by climate change.
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Atmospheric CO2
CO2 levels in the atmosphere are expected to reach 422.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2024, a 2.8 ppm increase over 2023 and a 52% rise from pre-industrial levels.
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Forestry Work
Reforestation and afforestation efforts, such as planting new forests, are offsetting about half of the emissions from permanent deforestation.
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China
While emissions from China (32% of global emissions) are forecast to increase slightly by 0.2%, the range of uncertainty also allows for a potential decrease.
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Fossil Fuels
Global emissions from fossil fuels are expected to rise in 2024, with coal emissions up by 0.2%, oil by 0.9%, and natural gas by 2.4%. Together, these sources account for 41%, 32%, and 21% of global fossil CO2 emissions, respectively.
However, coal emissions may still decline this year given the uncertainty in projections.
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United States
The United States (13% of global emissions) is expected to see a decrease of 0.6% in its emissions.
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India
Emissions from India (8% of global emissions) are estimated to rise by 4.6%.
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European Union
EU emissions (7% of the global total) are expected to decrease by 3.8%.
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Rest of the World
Emissions from the rest of the world, accounting for 38% of global emissions, are anticipated to increase by 1.1%.
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El Nino
The temporary El Niño climate event in 2023 reduced carbon absorption by terrestrial ecosystems (the land CO2 “sink”), but this is expected to recover as the event ends in the second quarter of 2024.
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Fires
Despite the extreme 2023 wildfire season in Canada, which continued into 2024, and the intense drought in Brazil, emissions from fires in 2024 are expected to remain above the average since the beginning of satellite records in 2003.
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Technology-Based CDR
Technology-based Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), excluding nature-based methods like reforestation, currently offsets about one-millionth of the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.
When will we surpass 1.5°C of global warming?
The researchers calculated the remaining “carbon budget” needed to prevent the 1.5°C target from being consistently exceeded over several years, rather than just a single year.
They estimate a 50% probability that global warming will consistently exceed 1.5°C in about six years, assuming current emission rates continue.
This estimate carries significant uncertainties, mainly because of the unpredictable additional warming effects from non-CO2 contributors, such as methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and aerosols.
However, they stress, it is clear that time has almost run out.
Citation
Friedlingstein, P., O’Sullivan, M., Jones, M. W., Andrew, R. M., Hauck, J., Landschützer, P., Le Quéré, C., Li, H., Luijkx, I. T., Olsen, A., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Sitch, S., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Alin, S. R., Arneth, A., Arora, V., Bates, N. R., Becker, M., Bellouin, N., Berghoff, C. F., Bittig, H. C., Bopp, L., Cadule, P., Campbell, K., Chamberlain, M. A., Chandra, N., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Colligan, T., Decayeux, J., Djeutchouang, L., Dou, X., Duran Rojas, C., Enyo, K., Evans, W., Fay, A., Feely, R. A., Ford, D. J., Foster, A., Gasser, T., Gehlen, M., Gkritzalis, T., Grassi, G., Gregor, L., Gruber, N., Gürses, Ö., Harris, I., Hefner, M., Heinke, J., Hurtt, G. C., Iida, Y., Ilyina, T., Jacobson, A. R., Jain, A., Jarníková, T., Jersild, A., Jiang, F., Jin, Z., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Klein Goldewijk, K., Knauer, J., Korsbakken, J. I., Lauvset, S. K., Lefèvre, N., Liu, Z., Liu, J., Ma, L., Maksyutov, S., Marland, G., Mayot, N., McGuire, P., Metzl, N., Monacci, N. M., Morgan, E. J., Nakaoka, S.-I., Neill, C., Niwa, Y., Nützel, T., Olivier, L., Ono, T., Palmer, P. I., Pierrot, D., Qin, Z., Resplandy, L., Roobaert, A., Rosan, T. M., Rödenbeck, C., Schwinger, J., Smallman, T. L., Smith, S., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Steinhoff, T., Sun, Q., Sutton, A. J., Séférian, R., Takao, S., Tatebe, H., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., Torres, O., Tourigny, E., Tsujino, H., Tubiello, F., van der Werf, G., Wanninkhof, R., Wang, X., Yang, D., Yang, X., Yu, Z., Yuan, W., Yue, X., Zaehle, S., Zeng, N., and Zeng, J.: Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-519, in review, 2024.