The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026.
In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC said it now expects oil demand to rise by about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026, down from a previous estimate of around 1.4 million barrels per day.
“Global oil demand is forecast to grow by a healthy 1.2 mb/d in 2026,” the OPEC report said.
The forecast comes just after the International Energy Agency (IEA) sharply cut its own demand outlook, saying it now expects oil demand to fall by 420,000 barrels per day this year.
While OPEC’s forecast is much less bearish than the IEA’s, both point to a market under pressure from the Iran war and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
“Tight physical crude supply prompted refiners, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and Europe, to compete for available prompt cargoes, including those from the Atlantic Basin,” the OPEC report said.
OPEC also reported a sharp fall in production among countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), the wider OPEC+ supply framework.
“In April, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 1.74 mb/d, m-o-m, to average about 33.19 mb/d,” OPEC said in its report.
Growth in the first quarter was driven by stronger-than-expected demand in parts of the OECD Americas, China, and other parts of Asia, OPEC said. However, those gains were offset by downward revisions for the rest of the year across both OECD and non-OECD economies.
Overall, the group expects OECD oil demand to increase by about 0.1 million barrels per day in 2026, while non-OECD demand is forecast to grow by about 1.1 million barrels per day.
That means most of the growth is still expected to come from non-OECD economies, including many emerging and developing markets.
The report also shows a change in where future supply growth is coming from. In 2025, non-DoC liquids supply rose by around 1.0 million barrels per day, with the United States accounting for about half of that increase. But OPEC expects non-DoC supply growth to slow to about 0.6 million barrels per day in both 2026 and 2027.
Put simply, OPEC still expects oil demand to grow, but the market has become more fragile. Demand is rising more slowly, supply outside the OPEC+ management framework is growing only modestly, and disruption around key export routes has put a strain on the global oil market.
