Restaurant employees whose schedules were rated poorly were more likely to leave when their colleagues had better shifts than when coworkers also had poor schedules, according to research on one restaurant group.
The researchers analyzed approximately 167,000 shifts for 1,189 employees at nine restaurants between late 2021 and November 2023. Their Harvard Business School working paper also includes a controlled experiment about how people assess schedules.
The restaurant records show associations, not proof that a particular scheduling policy caused people to resign. The results nevertheless give managers a way to examine turnover alongside the distribution of desirable shifts.
Schedule quality and comparison
Paige Tsai, Ryan Buell and Chiara Farronato first asked workers to evaluate schedules. Consistent workdays and more days of work were associated with better ratings in their data. Unusually long shifts, variable weekly hours and closing a restaurant before opening it the following morning tended to receive worse ratings.
They then estimated exit probabilities across two-week periods. For workers with poor schedules, the predicted probability of leaving was 5.10% when colleagues had better schedules, compared with 2.61% when colleagues also had poor schedules.
Those figures are model estimates for the studied restaurants, not forecasts for an individual employee. A person’s preferred hours can differ from coworkers’ preferences, and factors not captured by the model may influence both schedules and departures.
A separate controlled experiment found that a relative disadvantage reduced perceived fairness and intentions to stay. The experimental outcome was an intention in a controlled setting, whereas the restaurant analysis concerned observed departures.
Sales and retention are separate measures
The researchers found that a more even distribution of schedule quality was associated with lower restaurant-level turnover, while they detected no corresponding effect on sales or tips. Higher average schedule quality was associated with higher sales and tips.
The paper notes that better schedules tended to go to employees who generated higher sales per guest and were less likely to leave. That allocation makes it difficult to attribute the sales association to schedule quality alone.
Managers can start by asking workers which hours they want and comparing requests with actual assignments. Consistency, advance notice and access to preferred shifts are measurable features, although the best arrangement depends on staffing needs and individual circumstances.
Our earlier coverage of employee retention examined why wages are only one part of a job. Schedules add another consideration: two people with similar pay may experience the same workplace differently if their hours and opportunities differ.
The working paper has not established a schedule formula for all employers. A manager testing changes can track departures and employee preferences over time, while accounting for seasonal demand, staffing levels and other changes that may affect the result.
