Consumers’ written expressions of confidence fell during their early experiences with products and later recovered in an analysis of more than 3.7 million reviews, according to research in the Journal of Marketing Research.
Matthew Rocklage, Jonah Berger and Reihane Boghrati examined reviews of wine, beer and cosmetics and supplemented the analysis with an experiment on consumer choice. Their study connects uncertainty with willingness to try a different product or avoid a brand associated with a doubtful choice.
The review analysis tracked language used by people who wrote repeatedly. It is not a representative survey of all shoppers, and confidence in the text is an estimate rather than a direct measurement of everything a customer knows.
What reviews can reveal
The researchers analyzed language from almost 100,000 reviewers over close to 30 years across several datasets. They used a dictionary of words and phrases scored for expressed certainty, then examined how that language changed as each person submitted more reviews.
In one wine dataset, 30,141 people contributed more than one million tasting notes. Review counts served as a measure of experience within the dataset, although a person could have tried products without posting about them.
The authors found a U-shaped pattern: the language of early reviews became less certain as recorded experience grew, then became more certain with further experience. Their interpretation is that initial encounters can expose gaps in understanding before additional learning builds confidence.
Other factors may affect review language, and people who write many reviews differ from those who never post. The researchers tested several alternative explanations, but the observations alone cannot isolate every influence on an individual customer.
Uncertainty and repeat purchases
The research also examined subsequent choices. In the experimental portion, uncertainty was linked to choosing something different and avoiding options associated with an earlier uncertain judgment. That finding concerns the tested conditions, not a prediction that an uncertain customer will always abandon a brand.
A company can distinguish dissatisfaction from uncertainty when it reviews feedback. A buyer may like a product but still be unsure whether another option would suit them better. Clear information about differences between products can help shoppers compare alternatives without claiming that every buyer follows the same sequence.
Our earlier coverage of how shoppers assessed price guarantees examined a separate question about trust in one retailer. Neither study establishes a universal formula for loyalty.
For a business assessing retention, transactions and support records can complement review text. A change in language is a reason to investigate customer experience, not proof on its own that a product has improved or deteriorated.
