Western Balkan businesses face trade costs well beyond import tariffs, and many new export ventures do not last a year, according to a World Bank report published on October 27. The findings show how licensing, inspections and other procedures can affect firms even after markets have formally opened.
Goods and services trade was equivalent to 107% of the region’s economic output in 2025, above the European Union average of 90%, the World Bank reported. That ratio adds imports and exports and compares them with gross domestic product, the value of goods and services produced in an economy. It is not the share of output exported.
The bank’s regional assessment covers Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. It estimates average tariffs on goods imported into those economies at about 6%, while non-tariff measures add an estimated 10% to import costs.
The estimates are regional averages and modeled cost equivalents. They do not mean that each shipment pays an extra 10% fee at the border or that every measure is unnecessary.
Trade rules create costs before goods move
A tariff is a tax on an imported product. Non-tariff measures include requirements such as licenses, inspections and certification. They can protect consumers, health or the environment, but they also require time, documentation and administrative capacity.
If a manufacturer imports ingredients, packaging or machinery, a costly procedure on those inputs can affect the price and reliability of its own exports. The effect may be felt by a customer abroad even when the finished product faces a low tariff.
The World Bank estimates that non-tariff costs exceed 20% in some agri-food sectors. Its estimate for restrictions on cross-border services is 29%. Those figures use different sectors and should not be added together as a single charge.
Our earlier reporting on how tariff changes reach importers examined another source of variation: duties and timing can differ by product. A firm assessing a market needs to look at the requirements for its own goods and suppliers.
Keeping an export relationship is difficult
About one third of new export ventures established by Western Balkan firms survive their first year, the bank says. Just 1% to 4% reach their fifth year.
Those figures concern export ventures, not the share of businesses that close. A firm may stop selling one product to one market while continuing to operate elsewhere. The report does not establish that paperwork alone causes the exits.
For a smaller exporter, a first foreign order can involve product testing, labeling, transport, insurance and finding a reliable buyer. Repeated changes or delays may make those fixed costs harder to recover if sales volumes are modest.
Businesses can compare the full cost of fulfilling an order, including compliance and delivery, with the expected margin. Reviewing requirements for imported inputs matters too, particularly where one missing component can delay an entire shipment.
Reform does not mean removing every safeguard
The report recommends simpler digital procedures, inspections targeted by risk and recognition of aligned standards and qualifications, while preserving safeguards that serve legitimate public objectives.
Its simulations suggest that removing half of the remaining import barriers examined could raise regional GDP by up to 12.5% over the medium term. That is a modeled scenario under specified assumptions, not an observed gain or a guarantee from any single rule change.
The bank forecasts regional growth of 3.1% in 2026, compared with 2.6% in 2025, and 3.4% in 2027. The forecasts use information available by September 16 and can change with economic conditions.
For policymakers, the task is to reduce duplicate work without discarding checks that protect people and products. For exporters, the commercial question is whether a promising first order can become a repeatable business after the costs of compliance and delivery are counted.
