The East African Community recorded US$52.3 billion in trade during the second quarter of 2026, as exports grew faster than imports and the bloc moved to a US$0.3 billion surplus from a US$945.3 million deficit a year earlier.
The figures, released by the eight-country regional bloc on 16 September, show total trade rising 37.0% from US$38.2 billion in the April-to-June quarter of 2025. Exports rose 41.3% to US$26.3 billion, while imports increased 32.9% to US$26.0 billion.
The East African Community said its export growth was supported by trade with African markets as well as major global partners. The result is a regional aggregate, so it does not mean that every member country recorded a surplus.
China was the largest individual partner
Exports to China nearly doubled to US$10.7 billion from US$5.7 billion a year earlier, largely because of mineral commodities and other raw materials. Imports from China also increased, rising to US$7.1 billion from US$4.7 billion.
China remained both the bloc’s largest individual export destination and its largest source of imports. The direction of trade matters as much as the total: higher exports of commodities can lift trade values quickly, but the durability of that growth depends on prices, production and demand rather than on volumes alone.
African markets also gained importance. Exports to African countries rose 44.3% to US$7.2 billion, accounting for 27.5% of total EAC exports. Sales to the Southern African Development Community increased 50.8% to US$5.1 billion, while exports to the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa rose 48.3% to US$3.1 billion.
Trade within East Africa rose, but its share fell
Intra-EAC exports increased 33.2% to US$3.2 billion. Their share of the bloc’s exports nevertheless declined to 12.1% from 12.8% a year earlier because sales to markets outside the Community grew faster.
That is not evidence that regional integration is weakening. It shows that the EAC’s external exports expanded at a quicker rate during this quarter. But it also leaves the bloc exposed to global demand and commodity prices, particularly when much of the growth comes from mineral and raw-material shipments.
Improving trade within Africa still requires more than lower tariffs. As we reported on the World Bank’s recent assessment, transport links, customs procedures and restrictions on services can continue to raise costs after market access is formally granted.
Inflation eased through the quarter
The EAC’s harmonised consumer-price index showed annual inflation easing to 7.8% in June, from 10.7% in May and 11.1% in April. It was well below the 22.7% rate recorded in June 2025. The regional index fell 0.8% during June after a 1.2% increase in May.
Lower inflation can reduce pressure on household budgets and business costs, but it does not by itself explain the trade figures. The trade surplus reflects the difference between the value of exports and imports. A stronger surplus can result from higher export prices, greater export volumes, slower import growth, or a combination of those factors.
The quarter provides a positive regional snapshot, with export growth outpacing imports and trade expanding both within Africa and with China. The next test will be whether the gains are sustained as commodity markets, logistics costs and demand in major trading partners change.
