Validity’s latest consumer survey found that 47% of respondents said existing trust in a brand influenced whether they opened its holiday emails, compared with 39% who cited discounts or promotions. For retailers preparing October campaigns, the findings raise a commercial question: how much selling can a customer relationship support?
The marketing technology company released the findings on September 30. Its survey covered 1,000 consumers. These are reported preferences and experiences, rather than measured effects of the coming season’s campaigns.
Retailers have a substantial opportunity ahead. Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion in US online spending during November and December 2026, up 6.7% from a year earlier. That is a forecast for the market, however, not a guarantee that an individual retailer’s larger advertising or email budget will pay off.
October gives businesses time to test their approach before the busiest shopping weeks. The work starts with deciding who should receive each offer, when a reminder adds something useful, and when a completed purchase should stop the sales sequence.
Make the next message useful
Sending relevant information requires more than inserting a customer’s first name. A first-time visitor, a regular buyer and someone awaiting delivery have different reasons to hear from a retailer.
Mailchimp’s September analysis of the 2025 holiday season offers some evidence for more selective messaging. Emails using audience segmentation and personalization had an 11% higher average order value during the Black Friday and Cyber Monday period than those without them. Average order value is the amount spent per order.
Segmentation means grouping customers by relevant characteristics, such as purchase history. Mailchimp’s comparison reflects activity on its platform, not a randomized experiment proving those features caused bigger purchases. Like Validity, it sells marketing services.
A useful starting point is information customers have chosen to share. Let subscribers select product categories or gift interests. Use completed orders to remove buyers from reminders for the same purchase. Someone who bought a winter coat may need delivery information before another coat promotion.
Gift buying needs particular care. Buying a toy for a relative does not establish that toys are the customer’s lasting interest. A preference question can be more informative than months of recommendations built around that single order.
Manage frequency across the whole business
A promotional calendar should show what one customer receives across email, text messages and automated reminders. Reviewing each channel separately can miss the combined volume.
For example, a subscriber might receive a sale announcement, a reminder about an unfinished checkout and a text promoting the same products in one day. Each team may consider its message reasonable. The customer experiences all three.
Set a shared limit on promotional contacts, with a named person responsible for exceptions. There is no universal number that suits every business. Test a lower-frequency schedule against the existing one, while keeping the offers and audiences comparable.
Give subscribers an easy way to choose fewer messages or pause seasonal promotions. In Validity’s survey, 22% said a temporary reduction or snooze option would help them manage volume without unsubscribing. That makes it an option worth testing, rather than a demonstrated retention fix.
Service messages deserve separate treatment. Validity reported that 36% said holiday promotional volume had caused them to miss, delete or overlook an important nonpromotional message.
Keep order confirmations, delivery updates and account notices recognizable, with clear subject lines and the essential information near the top. A marketing pause should not prevent a customer from receiving an expected shipping update. Staff handling delayed orders should also be able to flag customers for a temporary pause in discretionary promotions.
Plan discounts beyond the next sale
Discounts can clear inventory, attract first-time buyers or help customers afford a purchase. Their value depends on the margin left behind and what happens after the promotion.
As we reported in our coverage of research on deep discounts, three shopping-scenario studies found that a very low previous price could weaken stated interest in buying at a later, less-discounted price. The experiments measured purchase intentions, not actual retail transactions.
The research gives retailers a reason to examine their sequence of offers. An October promotion should be assessed alongside November pricing and the price customers will see when the sale ends.
Before approving a discount, calculate the expected contribution from the order: revenue after the discount, less product costs and variable expenses such as payment processing, fulfillment and returns. Higher sales can still leave less money to cover overheads.
Test whether useful information can do some of the selling. Product comparisons, clear gift guides, accurate stock availability and realistic delivery estimates may answer questions that another percentage-off message leaves unresolved.
Every advertised deadline should reflect the actual offer or delivery schedule. Operations staff should confirm the stock and shipping promises before marketing puts them into a campaign.
Measure what extra contact actually earns
A campaign report can assign revenue to an email without establishing that the email created the sale. Some recipients would have bought anyway.
A holdout group provides a comparison by withholding specified marketing messages from part of an audience. To test an extra reminder, randomly assign eligible subscribers to receive it or continue with the existing schedule. Keep necessary service messages available to both groups.
Compare purchases across all customers assigned to each group, not just those who clicked. Choose the measurement period and success criteria beforehand, allow time for returns, and avoid declaring a winner from a handful of orders.
Track contribution per customer alongside unsubscribes, complaints and subsequent purchases. Email opens alone are a weak basis for the decision: Apple’s Mail Privacy Protection can inflate open metrics, as Mailchimp explains.
Carry the review into January, separating first-time holiday buyers from established customers. The measures to retain are how many remain reachable by choice, how many buy again, and how much contribution those orders produce after discounts and returns.
