The Asian Development Bank’s latest global trade-finance survey puts unmet demand at US$2.5 trillion, a reminder that finding an overseas customer does not always give a business the money or payment protection it needs to fulfill the order.
The estimate comes from the bank’s 2025 survey, promoted in a January 2026 release. It describes a financing shortfall, not $2.5 trillion of confirmed lost exports. Some applications are rejected for sound commercial reasons.
The problem has lasting consequences for efforts to spread trade across more countries. A manufacturer entering a new market must persuade both the customer to buy and a financier to accept the transaction’s risks.
The bill arrives before the customer pays
Exporters often have to buy materials, pay employees, and arrange shipping before receiving payment. Trade finance provides funding or protection against non-payment across that interval.
The US International Trade Administration’s guide to export financing explains that buyers commonly receive goods before their payment is due. These “open account” arrangements can help suppliers win business, but leave them waiting for cash while carrying the risk that the buyer will not pay.
Working-capital financing covers day-to-day operating needs during this cash cycle. Credit insurance addresses a different problem: the risk of a covered customer payment failing to arrive.
Those services have a cost. Interest, insurance premiums, and transaction fees reduce what the exporter keeps from the sale. Demanding payment in advance shifts the financing burden to the buyer, who may prefer a competing supplier with more flexible terms.
As we explained in our earlier coverage of profitable businesses running short of cash, recording a sale and collecting the money happen on different timetables. Exporting adds another country’s banking arrangements and payment risks to that timing problem.
A bank promise still needs careful paperwork
A letter of credit is a commitment by the buyer’s bank to pay when the seller meets specified conditions and supplies the required documents. It can make an unfamiliar overseas customer easier to deal with.
The exporter still needs confidence in the bank making that promise. Documents must also match the agreement. Errors can delay payment and add fees, while preparing and checking the paperwork requires trained staff.
For a small shipment, those administrative costs can take a larger share of the order’s value. A commercially attractive product may consequently be difficult to finance economically.
Smaller suppliers face obstacles beyond the interest rate
In a June analysis for ICC Academy, trade-finance specialist Parshant Mittal identifies thin credit histories, collateral demands, invoice disputes, and costly customer checks among the barriers facing smaller suppliers.
Collateral is an asset pledged to secure a loan. A young exporter may have an order but few assets acceptable to a lender. Banks must also establish who owns the business and assess the parties involved, work that can be expensive relative to a small transaction.
ADB’s survey report points to signs of progress: rejection rates for smaller firms have moved closer to those for larger domestic companies. Its authors caution that the reasons remain uncertain, including whether fewer discouraged firms are applying. A narrower gap between applicants does not establish that every excluded business now has access.
Reaching the suppliers further down the chain
Supply-chain finance can allow a supplier to receive money early against an invoice approved by a stronger buyer. The financier can assess that buyer’s ability to pay, potentially reducing dependence on the smaller supplier’s own credit record.
Extending finance beyond a large company’s immediate suppliers is harder. Businesses further down the chain need reliable invoice records and a clear route for payments. Mittal argues that better transaction data and more accessible financing programs can widen participation.
That adds a financing requirement to the market-access issues discussed in our recent Southeast Asian trade coverage. Lower trade barriers can open a market, while access to funding determines which suppliers can afford to serve it.
Payment after an approved invoice also leaves an earlier hurdle: paying for production before that invoice exists. ADB identifies pre-shipment financing as one way to fund materials and manufacturing at that stage. An exporter needs finance to arrive when the spending starts.
