Thailand needs its economic output per person to grow by an average of 5.4% a year to reach high-income status by 2037, according to a new World Bank report. Getting there would require productive businesses and better-paid jobs to spread more widely across the country.
The report, Building Thailand’s Future Today, was launched on September 3. It sets out changes to industry, business conditions, education, and cities that could accelerate growth over the next decade.
Its starting point is uneven performance. Thailand’s largest firms have productivity approaching rich-country levels, while many smaller businesses lag behind, the report says. Bangkok’s prosperity also sits alongside much weaker economic opportunities elsewhere.
Higher income requires more output per person
The 5.4% figure refers to real gross domestic product per capita: the value of goods and services produced, adjusted for inflation and divided by the population. It is a measure of average output, not a promise that every worker’s pay will rise by the same amount.
The report’s modeling assumes ambitious reforms are fully implemented. It explicitly describes the projected gains as illustrative scenarios, not forecasts.
High-income status is determined using a related measure, gross national income per person, converted into US dollars using the World Bank’s Atlas method, which smooths exchange-rate fluctuations. National income includes income flows between residents and the rest of the world.
That national average cannot show how prosperity is distributed. A country can cross an income threshold while substantial differences between households and regions remain.
Export success needs stronger local suppliers
The immediate economy demonstrates the problem. In its August 26 assessment, the Bank of Thailand said technology and artificial intelligence demand had lifted exports and private investment faster than expected.
But those activities relied heavily on imported inputs, limiting their benefits for the wider Thai economy. Household spending was weaker than anticipated, and lending to small and medium-sized enterprises continued to contract.
We reported on those pressures when the central bank held its policy rate at 1%. They help explain why expanding exports alone may leave smaller domestic businesses behind.
A factory’s export price includes both its imported components and the value created locally. Developing domestic suppliers, engineering services, and production skills can allow more of that activity to take place within Thailand. It requires firms that can meet buyers’ standards and finance their own expansion.
Competition and skills determine who can grow
The World Bank’s reform agenda calls for easier business entry, stronger competition, better access to finance, and closer connections between foreign investors and local companies.
It identifies five promising sectors: advanced manufacturing, tourism focused on sustainability and wellness, digital services, agrifood, and creative industries. Agrifood covers farming and the businesses that process and sell food.
“Thailand’s high-income ambition is within reach, but getting there will require a new phase of higher-value growth,” said Carlos Felipe Jaramillo, the bank’s vice president for East Asia and Pacific.
For employers, productivity means getting more output from the resources used. Better machinery can help, but employees must know how to operate it and managers must organize production effectively. Buying equipment without the necessary skills can leave its capacity underused.
More jobs need to develop outside Bangkok
The report argues that concentrating resources in the capital has left other cities with fewer opportunities. It recommends stronger secondary cities, alongside improvements to Bangkok, so more people can find good jobs without moving to the same metropolitan area.
That broadens the spending decisions involved. Transport, education, and local services affect whether businesses can recruit and retain workers, just as finance affects whether they can invest.
The reforms also take time. Credit constraints can prevent smaller firms from upgrading today, while improvements in schooling take years to reach the workforce. Thailand’s 2037 ambition depends on implementation across those different timescales.
