Combining cleaner battery production with measures such as smaller packs and longer operating lifetimes could roughly halve cumulative lithium-ion battery supply-chain emissions through 2050, according to modelling reported by the University of Melbourne.
The university’s October 17 announcement describes a study in One Earth examining batteries used in electric cars, vans, buses, trucks and stationary energy storage.
Its message for manufacturers is that reducing the emissions from each battery does not settle the wider problem if demand for new battery capacity grows rapidly.
The model examines production and demand together
The research, led by Haiwei Zhou and Wen Li with colleagues in China and the UK, models the global supply chain from 2024 to 2050. It covers materials, components, battery manufacturing and treatment at the end of a battery’s life.
According to the university, its scenarios put cumulative emissions without the additional measures at about 19 billion to 23 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Combining ambitious changes to production and demand reduces that to approximately 9 billion to 12 billion tonnes.
Carbon dioxide equivalent expresses the warming effect of different greenhouse gases using a common measure. These totals are modelled emissions accumulated over the period, not annual emissions or reductions already achieved.
The scenarios depend on assumptions about technology, battery requirements and how products are used. They are not a forecast that the identified savings will automatically occur.
Cleaner factories cannot control every source of growth
Measures on the production side include cleaner electricity, changes in battery chemistry and recovering materials from used batteries.
The demand side asks different questions: how many batteries are needed, how large they are, how long they last and when they must be replaced. Smaller packs, longer lifetimes and shared mobility are among the approaches examined.
For a vehicle manufacturer, battery sizing also has to meet customers’ operating requirements. A smaller pack is of little practical use if it cannot support the journeys or working patterns for which the vehicle is bought.
The commercial task is to provide the required service with appropriate capacity. That can differ substantially between a delivery vehicle following a predictable route and one expected to travel long distances with limited opportunities to recharge.
Longer lifetimes change recycling schedules
Keeping usable batteries in operation for longer can reduce replacement requirements, but it also affects when material reaches recycling facilities.
As MBN reported in its examination of battery recyclers’ feedstock problem, installed battery capacity and the supply of retired packs grow on different schedules. A recycler needs material arriving at its plant, rather than a large number of batteries still in service.
Second-life applications, in which a battery is reused for another purpose, also need to be distinguished from breaking it down to recover its materials.
The findings concern the battery supply chain
The estimates do not compare the complete lifetime climate impact of electric vehicles with petrol or diesel alternatives. Nor do they establish the profitability of individual battery factories, fleets or reuse businesses.
The researchers want to improve the model’s regional detail because mining, refining and electricity conditions vary between locations. Those differences can affect where particular measures offer the greatest benefit.
For companies planning capacity, the study adds a demand question to the production calculation. Cleaner manufacturing remains important, while product design, replacement schedules and the amount of battery capacity required deserve attention in the same investment decision.
