People were more likely to choose an option again after selecting it repeatedly, even when researchers controlled for differences in expected reward, according to a study led by TUD Dresden University of Technology. The effect was also associated with higher later valuations, suggesting that a customer’s choice history may contribute to future preference.
The research offers a possible explanation for a familiar commercial problem. A new product may have a lower price or better features, yet customers continue buying the brand they already know.
That does not mean the familiar product is inferior, or that repetition overrules quality. The study indicates that reward and repetition can work together. Previous choices may add an advantage of their own.
The peer-reviewed research, published in Communications Psychology, was conducted by Ben J. Wagner, H. Benedikt Wolf and Stefan J. Kiebel.
How the experiments worked
The researchers collected nine new datasets involving 351 participants and reanalysed six previously published datasets involving another 350. Two people from the new sample were excluded from the final analysis, one because of a lengthy break and the other because of a data-collection error.
In the new tasks, participants first completed 60 to 80 rounds of choices between abstract options. Depending on the task, a correct choice could produce a small monetary reward or points. Participants gradually learned which alternatives produced better outcomes.
They then entered a transfer stage, in which options learned in separate settings were placed into new combinations. This allowed the researchers to test whether choice history affected preference when the context changed.
Options selected more frequently during the learning stage were more likely to be chosen during the transfer stage. The association remained when the researchers focused on options with equal expected values, reducing the likelihood that reward differences alone explained the result.
In the tasks that collected post-experiment ratings, frequently chosen options also tended to receive higher valuations. In the probabilistic tasks, greater choice frequency was associated with less variation in participants’ estimates of an option’s value, which the researchers used as a group-level measure of uncertainty.
The team built a computational model containing two mechanisms. The first learned from rewards. The second tracked the tendency to repeat a previous action. This combined model performed better than the tested alternatives in 12 of the 15 datasets and ranked second in the remaining three.
Wagner said in a TU Dresden statement that options chosen more often were both preferred and rated more highly.
Why the first purchase may matter
Businesses already spend heavily on samples, free trials, introductory discounts and welcome offers. The study did not test those marketing methods, but it provides a plausible additional reason for securing an initial choice.
If customers select a product once and then repeat the decision, that history may gradually become another reason for choosing it. The process could be especially relevant for frequent, relatively low-cost purchases where shoppers have little reason to compare every available alternative.
Online retail can make repetition even easier. Saved shopping lists and “buy again” buttons turn a previous selection into the quickest route through a purchase. This commercial interpretation is an inference from the laboratory findings, not something tested by the researchers.
There is also a useful distinction between an active repeat purchase and automatic renewal. The experiments required participants to choose an option repeatedly. A subscription that renews without any customer action is therefore not a direct example of the mechanism studied.
For established brands, low-friction repeat buying may help defend market share. A challenger may need to do more than explain why its product is better. It may also need to interrupt the customer’s usual action by offering a trial, improving visibility or making comparison easier.
Repeat sales should not automatically be interpreted as deep brand attachment. Some customers may be enthusiastic. Others may be satisfied enough to avoid spending time on another decision.
