Homeowners in the U.S. with low-rate mortgages have an obvious financial reason to stay where they are as moving often means replacing an older mortgage with a much more expensive one.
Renters do not face that same mortgage-rate lock-in. Yet their expectations of moving have also declined sharply.
A new analysis by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggests that one reason may be the growing difficulty of reaching the destination many renters once expected: homeownership.
Using data from the New York Fed’s annual Survey of Consumer Expectations Housing Survey, the researchers found that the average probability renters assigned to moving within the following three years fell from approximately 57% in 2014 to 37% in 2026.
That 20-percentage-point decline does not mean the number of renters who actually moved fell by the same amount. It measures people’s expectations rather than completed moves. However, the researchers note that moving expectations can provide an early indication of future behavior.
Renters are less confident that they will ever own a home
The decline in expected mobility has occurred alongside a substantial weakening in renters’ homeownership expectations.
In 2015, renters placed their average probability of ever owning a home at 52.7%. By 2026, it had fallen to 34.7%, according to the New York Fed’s detailed housing survey results.
There was a small improvement from 33.9% in 2025, but the longer-term decline remains considerable.
The relationship between ownership expectations and moving plans was particularly striking. Across the survey data, renters who believed they had only a 0% to 20% chance of ever owning a home reported an average three-year moving probability of around 25%.
Among renters who placed their chance of eventually owning at between 81% and 100%, the average probability of moving was approximately 76%.
This does not prove that losing hope of buying a home causes renters to stay in place. Credit scores, incomes, local housing conditions and other differences may influence both answers. The results nevertheless suggest that many expected moves are closely connected to the possibility of progressing from renting to owning.
The desire to own has not disappeared
One possible explanation would be that renters simply no longer want to become homeowners. The survey provides little evidence for that interpretation.
In 2026, about 65% of renters said they would prefer or strongly prefer to own their primary residence if they had the necessary financial resources. That proportion has remained within a relatively narrow range since 2015.
The larger change appears to be in what renters believe they can afford.
Approximately 44.2% of renters surveyed in 2026 said obtaining a mortgage would be very difficult, while another 24.3% said it would be somewhat difficult. Together, nearly 69% viewed mortgage access as difficult.
Those perceptions are consistent with current market conditions. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.69% as of August 6, 2026, according to Freddie Mac.
Higher borrowing costs have also not been accompanied by a large national decline in house prices. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that U.S. house prices were 2.2% higher in May 2026 than a year earlier.
A second form of housing lock-in
The findings point to two different mechanisms that can reduce mobility.
Homeowners can experience mortgage-rate lock-in. They may want to move, but doing so would require surrendering a below-market mortgage and financing another property at a much higher rate.
Renters may be experiencing something that could be described as destination lock-in. They are not tied to their current homes by a mortgage, but the next step they once expected to take appears financially unreachable.
This is an interpretation of the findings rather than a term used by the New York Fed researchers. It helps explain why a renter might renew a lease even without being particularly satisfied with the property. The decision may reflect the absence of an affordable destination rather than a strong desire to remain where they are.
A softer rental market does not necessarily repair the housing ladder
The trend is especially interesting because parts of the rental market are becoming less competitive.
The national rental vacancy rate stood at 7.3% in the second quarter of 2026, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That was virtually unchanged from the first quarter and not statistically different from the 7% rate recorded a year earlier, but it remained well above the unusually low levels reached earlier in the decade.
Apartment rent growth has also slowed. The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies reported that asking rents for professionally managed apartments declined by 0.5% year over year in the first quarter of 2026.
However, those asking rents were still approximately 29% higher than in 2020.
This creates an important distinction. More vacant apartments can give renters additional choices and reduce pressure on new rents. It does not automatically make buying a home affordable.
The rental market can therefore loosen while the route from renting to owning remains blocked.
Why reduced renter mobility matters to businesses
The New York Fed analysis did not measure company revenue, housing transactions or employment outcomes. However, the pattern has several potential business implications.
For landlords, longer tenancies can reduce advertising, cleaning, repairs and vacancy periods between occupants. Existing property owners may benefit from more lease renewals.
At the same time, fewer movers can reduce leasing activity. Newly completed apartment buildings, property-listing platforms and rental agents may have to compete for a smaller pool of households actively looking for another home.
A weaker transition from renting to ownership would also affect the broader home-purchase ecosystem. Fewer potential first-time buyers can mean fewer transactions for mortgage lenders, real estate agents, appraisers, inspectors, title companies and moving businesses. It can also reduce the number of households purchasing furniture, appliances and home-improvement services after buying a property.
For homebuilders, the survey suggests that the desire for homeownership has not disappeared. Most renters still say they would prefer to own. The findings point less to a loss of interest in homeownership than to a widening gap between renters’ preferences and what they believe is financially attainable.
Lower mobility could also have consequences for employers. Moving allows workers to accept jobs in other regions, live closer to employment centers or adjust their housing as their income and family circumstances change. If fewer renters expect to relocate, companies in expensive markets may find it harder to attract workers from elsewhere.
These are potential consequences rather than outcomes established by the New York Fed study.
Expectations are an early signal, not proof of a collapse in moves
The distinction between expected and actual mobility remains important.
Harvard’s analysis of American Community Survey data found that renter mobility held at approximately 22.5% in both 2023 and 2024. The decline in overall household mobility during that period was driven by homeowners rather than renters.
The latest New York Fed findings therefore should not be presented as evidence that completed renter moves have already fallen dramatically. Instead, they indicate that renters are becoming less likely to believe they will move over the next several years.
The 2026 housing survey was conducted in February and included 921 respondents overall. The detailed renter questions received 261 responses. The associations also do not establish that affordability is the only cause of declining moving expectations.
Economic uncertainty, moving expenses, security deposits, family ties, remote work, favorable existing leases and fewer job changes could all influence whether renters plan to relocate.
The researchers describe housing affordability as an important contributing factor, not a complete explanation.
A housing market freezing from both ends
Many existing homeowners are reluctant to sell because they do not want to give up inexpensive mortgages. At the same time, many renters still want to buy but increasingly doubt that they will be able to do so.
Additional rental supply may improve apartment availability and slow rent growth. But it cannot, by itself, rebuild the path into homeownership.
Until purchase prices, mortgage costs and household finances move back into closer alignment, some renters may continue to expect to remain where they are, not because they have abandoned the idea of owning a home, but because the next step feels increasingly difficult to reach.
